Monday, January 20, 2014

What's the Best Day to Buy Apple Stock?

From what I read, Apple - $AAPL not SAPPL - is most followed individual stock by retail investors.  True or not, you can't go an hour without someone mentioning it on CNBC.  There's a lot of interest.  The stock has a high price, currently $540.67, but might be considered relatively cheap at 13.6 and enough cash to buy anything except maybe a house in San Francisco.

I had noticed in prior years that for some reason, there was a pattern in movements in Apple stock.

I looked at the last year, and gosh damn it, the pattern is still there.  Look at these numbers.  Start with close Friday price to close Monday, and so forth.

Day           Change
Monday 128.65
Tuesday 59.22
Wednesday -19.9
Thursday -69.34
Friday -58.64

Net change for the year -38.  No matter, if you bought on Friday close and sold at Tuesday close, you would be up 187 points.  Incredibly bizarre that it's so obvious.  It's not everyday, of course.  Every Monday isn't up.  But when it is, it more than blows away the bad days.  Just imagine if you had the courage to short starting later in the week.

Feel free to perform your own backtest.  Pick any period.

The big question is, of course, why?  Other stocks have patterns, but few this consistent.  I can make a few guesses, but I'll leave that up to you.

The posts here are informational and not a recommendation.  Who knows if the pattern will continue? Time will tell. I currently have no position in $AAPL.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Which Day of the Week has the Most Volatility?

For swing traders, every day is a day to make money.  One of the most annoying things for a trader is when a market just sits there.  It got me to thinking if there a pattern to the market moving.  What day of the week is the stock market most volatile, with the best opportunity to make money?  Not to mention when is risk the highest of losing money.

There are a lot of volatility measures, the most popular being the VIX, but I looked at it a little differently.  I looked at the difference for the high and low of the $SPY to see what the range was, and totaled it for the year 2013.  A nice small sample.

Monday 59.63
Tuesday 68.12
Wednesday 80.01
Thursday 70.33
Friday 65.49

As you can see above, the day with the biggest swing is Wednesday.   Interestingly, it really is hump day, with the action getting larger until Wednesday and then falling off.  The numbers about don't normalize for the fact that there are more Monday holidays, but if you take those into account, Monday is still the least volatile. 

The data hold up pretty well over prior years of 2012 and 2011 as well.  Monday is the least volatile in every year, even correcting for fewer trading days because of holidays.  Swing traders may want to consider four day weeks every week.  Or at least realize that most of the opportunity to make money is mid-week.    

Thursday, January 9, 2014

The best day to buy stocks

Remember the stock market from last year?  It seemed like every Monday was down, and stocks would come roaring back on Tuesday.  It got to be a joke, with Tuesday up repeatedly.  Tuesday wasn't down at all for the first half of the year.  Then we had a down Tuesday and no one said anything more about it.

Funny, after the first week of 2014, the only really good day was Tuesday, and everyone seemed to forget about last year.  But, should they have forgotten?  What really happened last year.

It turns out that Tuesday was a great day to invest in 2013.  But it wasn't the best day.  If you bought at the end of the previous day, your total returns for the year by day for the $SPY would have been:

Monday -3.69
Tuesday 14.42
Wednesday -1.12
Thursday 10.63
Friday 21.28

Yeah.  Under that scenario, Friday was the best day.  It wasn't up every day, but when it was, you made the most money. 

And what if you forgot to buy at the close?  What happened if you bought the open? And held to the next morning?

Monday 2.33
Tuesday 4.59
Wednesday 4.36
Thursday 10.44
Friday 17.24
Yep, once again, Friday was the best day to buy stocks.  It wasn't as consistent, but the bigger positive moves were made on Friday.  You would have made the most on a two day work week.  Of course, last year was so good, it didn't matter how much you invested.  Just not over the weekend.  

I can't say that 2014 will be as consistent.  But, tomorrow is Friday.  Are you buying?