Tuesday, March 4, 2014

The End of the Bull Market

This is it.  The end of the bull market.  March 4, 2014.  The SP 500 hit a high of $1876 and change today, on a big increase sparked by Russia backing off of the Ukraine.  Of course, it wasn't really a back off.  They simply did what they had already planned on doing.

Why here, why now?  I don't have a lot of fancy charts, although if I tried I could come up with something to validate my position.  But why bother?  I could just as easily find another chart that would say the opposite.

The market has been frothy for a while.  The momentum names are flying.  I saw Netflix ($NFLX) hit $450 today.  Chipotle is over $570.  Tesla who I have a small short position in, is 4 times an analyst's estimate.  I have been bullish because I didn't see an alternative place to invest.  But now I see commodities are racing.  I am long Corn and Coffee through options, but there are plenty others.

I am not predicting a crash.  With interest rates this low, I doubt the market falls a lot.  But I don't see it going up for a long while, a position I now share with Henry Blodgett.

I am still long in my long term accounts, although I may rethink that position.

I am not making any recommendations on any specific investment.  Enjoy the ride.

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