Saturday, April 5, 2014

Calling the Top of the Bull Market

I tried a few weeks ago to call the top of the bull market.  Silly me.

No one can call the market top.  If they do it's just luck.  Really, what happens is that someone repeatedly calls for a top and when they it finally happens, they claim victory.  Silly them.

The latest attempt to find an indicator that we are at the top relates to the fact that the NASDAQ and small caps ($IWM) have fallen a great deal in the last few days.  They are supposed to be leaders, and when fall, the market will follow them.

But they haven't been leaders in this market.  Tech hasn't performed nearly as well as the broad market, and although small caps have exceeded the S&P, they haven't done that much better, and were partially driven by the ridiculous jump in biotech stocks.  Which have hit a wall and dropped like a rock in the last few days.
So it the bull market over?  Nah, not in my opinion.  It may take a few days or weeks off, but as long as interest rates remain low (and they still are ridiculously low in historical terms) there is no reason to think that money will flee the stock market for a better opportunity.

Long and strong.

Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

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